Tracepoint

Change Prediction Method

How Tracepoint turns a change on the vehicle into one effort figure.

  1. 12 subsystems

    The vehicle as subsystems, each with its share of a new vehicle generation's development effort.

  2. A change spreads

    It starts in one subsystem and spreads over the interfaces, at most 3 links deep; each link has a likelihood and an impact.

  3. One figure, one class

    What it reaches adds up: adapt below 15 %, major revision up to 50 %, a new generation beyond.

i4 LCI 2025: 613 km range, +10% powerBMW's decision: adapt · Engine: adapt

Change starts in1 link away2 links away3 links awayHV battery: 3.0 % of a new vehicle generationHV battery3.0 %Body/structure: 2.3 % of a new vehicle generation, reached with a likelihood of 13 %Body/structure2.3 %E/E architecture: 1.4 % of a new vehicle generation, reached with a likelihood of 15 %E/E architecture1.4 %Chassis: 1.0 % of a new vehicle generation, reached with a likelihood of 10 %Chassis1.0 %Thermal/HVAC: 1.0 % of a new vehicle generation, reached with a likelihood of 16 %Thermal/HVAC1.0 %Charging: 0.8 % of a new vehicle generation, reached with a likelihood of 19 %Charging0.8 %Interior/console: 0.3 % of a new vehicle generation, reached with a likelihood of 4 %Interior/console0.3 %Exterior design: 0.2 % of a new vehicle generation, reached with a likelihood of 4 %Exterior design0.2 %Software/HMI: 1.5 % of a new vehicle generation, reached with a likelihood of 15 %Software/HMI1.5 %Seats: under 0.1 % of a new vehicle generation, reached with a likelihood of 1 %Seatsunder 0.1 %

Box: share of a new generation's effort. Darker line: likelier path. Not reached: Powertrain, Paint/color.

11.5 %of a new vehicle generationP5 to P95 5.0 to 16.1

The figure is the sum of the reached subsystems' shares, with no add-on.

Back-test: 8 of 8 documented BMW decisions reproduced with effort model 789fcb7624b8. Every weight and link is the team's assumption, not calibrated.

Clarkson, Simons, Eckert (2004), Predicting Change Propagation in Complex Design, Journal of Mechanical Design 126(5). Data as stored on 2026-10-11.

Three markets on the map